One of the best power rating systems in the realm of college football, the KFord Ratings by Kelley Ford, released its second preseason edition on Friday. The model, which predicts a team's likelihood of being in the College Football Playoff at-large conversation based on projected Most Deserving Rankings, gave Texas A&M a 40 percent chance to make the big dance.
Each team’s chance to be in the CFP at-large discussion, per my v2 power ratings!
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) August 8, 2025
I did not say chance to make the CFP. Boise State has much higher than a 3% chance to make the CFP. But there is only a 3% chance their record at the end is strong enough to be in the AL discussion pic.twitter.com/43Nhzb0Ulb
While 40 percent may feel low for a team that was a week away from an SEC title appearance last season, that number is still good for 12th best in the country and seventh best in the conference.
Texas A&M projected to be hovering on edge of playoff discussion
Also included in Ford's Preseason V2 was a look at how many regular-season wins are required for a team to be in the conversation for an at-large bid, as well as how many mulligans would be afforded to each team to still remain in the conversation. The Aggies were allotted nine regular-season wins to find their way into the at-large conversation, and just one mulligan afforded.
These metrics feel right on par to the situations several SEC teams found themselves in during the 2024 season. Nine wins kept Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina in the playoff picture right until the very end, but the lack of a second mulligan kept all three out.
Alabama had its losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma; Ole Miss had its to Florida and Kentucky; and while two of South Carolina's losses were to Ole Miss and Alabama, it wouldn't have made sense to have the Gamecocks jump the two teams that beat them.
Ten regular-season wins should guarantee a spot in the college football playoffs and remains the obvious goal, but it's nice to know the Aggies can remain in that at-large conversation with a 9-3 record, or with one mulligan should they slip up somewhere along the schedule. The games will have to play themselves out, but it's hard not to start looking at the schedule and mapping out the scenarios that keep the Aggies in or out.