Texas A&M Football: 3 reasons the Aggies will beat Mississippi State

The red zone will decide the game for Texas A&M football

It’s no secret that good red zone execution has a high correlation to wins.  The Aggies have this aspect of their performance to thank for their record thus far in the season— from KJ Jefferson’s fumble to not allowing a single TD to Miami, the Aggies have been great in this crucial area the whole year. But just how good have they been?

That’s a good question. Texas A&M currently is tied for first in offensive red zone percentage, having scored on every possession they’ve been there, and is 6th in defensive red zone percentage, allowing a score on only 58% of opponent possessions there.

Further, the Aggies have averaged 5.67 points per RZ possession, and only give up an average of 2.75 points per RZ possession. They’ve done a great job of ensuring that their scoring opportunities have ended up being much more valuable than those of their opponents.

But what about MSU? For all the praise the air raid gets, it can be a tough system to run once the back of the end zone starts acting as an extra defender, walling off vertical options. However, the Bulldogs have done a good job thus far in the season, scoring on almost 93% of their RZ possessions.

They’ve actually averaged more points than the Aggies per RZ possession as well, coming in at 6.21. Their red zone defense, on the other hand, is a different story; MSU is tied for 95th in the country by this measure, giving up a score on 89% of defensive RZ possessions, with opponents averaging 5.78 points per RZ trip.

Another way of putting this: A&M’s red zone performances so far have been 2.6 times more valuable than their opponents. MSU? Only 1.07 times as valuable, despite averaging more points per RZ trip than the Aggies. The upshot of all this is that I expect Durkin’s defense to have a similar performance to how they fared against the Bulldogs last year— MSU went up and down the field, but stalled in the red zone.

So what are your keys?  How do you see this game ending up?  Leave a comment down below and let me know!