Advanced stats are unanimous in prediction for Texas A&M's showdown with Texas

Texas A&M is gearing up for the Lone Star Showdown this Friday in Austin, visiting the Longhorns for the first time since they defeated them 24-17 in 2010. Texas A&M has separated themselves as one of the nation's best teams this year, and are looking to close out an undefeated year with a victory over their rivals.

On the surface, this is already a lopsided matchup— the Aggies' strengths match up with the Longhorns' weaknesses, while the inverse is not the case— but what do the numbers say? Let's take a look at a few advanced statistical profiles and how they see this game matching up.

Advanced stats unanimously predict Texas A&M taking home a win this Friday

We'll look at three systems here: ESPN's SP+ ratings, done by Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau's FEI ratings, and Parker Fleming's CFB-Graphs. This is only a sampling, but every system I've consulted tells the same story: Texas A&M will take home a win this weekend.

ESPN's SP+ has Texas A&M winning and covering in Austin

Bill Connelly of ESPN runs SP+, an advanced statistical system that prizes success rate and explosiveness as two key factors for every team. Connelly's system sees the Aggies winning by just about five in this game:

This would cover the spread, which currently stands at 2.5 points in favor of the Aggies. This may not be as emphatic as most Aggie fans would like, but these stats eliminate garbage time— the Ags could well pull away in this one.

Brian Fremeau's FEI sees the Aggies taking care of business

FEI, a statistical system run by Brian Fremeau since 2003, is built off of possession efficiency. This system sees the Aggies winning and covering, with a margin of about 4.5 points.

According to Fremeau, Texas A&M is far more efficient on offense (10th in the nation vs. 36th) and a push on defense (16th vs. 13th). That portends a somewhat lopsided game in general, but with the game being in Austin, the Longhorns are being spotted a few points.

Of course, if things start getting out of hand, whatever home field advantage the Longhorns hope to have will quickly dissipate. This is a notoriously fair-weather fanbase, after all, so the Aggies could clear things out quickly and begin running it up.

Parker Fleming's CFB-Graphs sees Texas A&M controlling the game and covering

Parker Fleming's CFB Graphs shows a matchup breakdown of each of the teams, as well as a score projection. For this one, he has the Aggies winning by about 4 points, which would cover the current 2.5-point spread.

The biggest advantages for A&M on offense in this game will be when Marcel Reed drops back to pass— while Texas prevents teams from running the ball effectively for the most part, they're not great at knocking the pass game off-schedule. I expect the Aggies to take a "pass-to-run" approach, picking up yardage on early downs (another advantage for the Aggies) with quick throws and mix in some play-action and outside runs to keep the defense honest.

On defense, he has the Aggies with a massive advantage on third down: they lead the nation in third and fourth down success allowed, while the Longhorns are 81st in that category on offense. Arch's legs will be the key for Texas on those downs, as the pressure will get there quickly.

Interestingly, the Texas defense profiles really similarly in some ways to the Missouri defense. The Tigers are actually far better at preventing offensive success (8th in the nation vs. 36th for Texas) and much more efficient against both the pass and run game on that basis, while Texas is slightly better at EPA/rush allowed.

This is a Missouri defense, of course, that the Aggies put up 38 on and, with the backups in, kneeled out the ball on the goal line in the last seconds of the game— meaning they could have easily scored again to pull the total to 45. That's bad news for Texas fans.