Aggies tumble out of CFP bye, but into potential first-round home game

With the regular season in the books, the Texas A&M Aggies will take their 11-1 (7-1) record into the College Football Playoff. Heading into the conference championships, Texas A&M is one of effectively eight locks to make the playoff. Georgia, Indiana, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Texas A&M and Texas Tech are all making it in some way, shape or form, but how will the eight teams be seeded?

Well, in the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings, Texas A&M dropped four spots from No. 3, all the way down to No. 7. This was a direct result of the Aggies losing the Lone Star Showdown to a three-loss Texas Longhorns team, who will be on the outside looking in at making the playoff as the No. 13 seed right now. So really no matter what happens, Texas A&M will be hosting a playoff game.

Without further ado, here are the latest College Football Playoff rankings heading into the title bouts.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0)
2. Indiana Hoosiers (12-0)
3. Georgia Bulldogs (11-1)
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1)
5. Oregon Ducks (11-1)
6. Ole Miss Rebels (11-1)
7. Texas A&M Aggies (11-1
8. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)
9. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)
11. BYU Cougars (11-1)
12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
13. Texas Longhorns (9-3)
14. Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2)
15. Utah Utes (10-2)
16. USC Trojans (9-3)
17. Virginia Cavaliers (10-2)
18. Arizona Wildcats (9-3)
19. Michigan Wolverines (9-3)
20. Tulane Green Wave (10-2)
21. Houston Cougars (9-3)
22. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-3)
23. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4)
24. North Texas Mean Green (11-1)
25. James Madison Dukes (11-1)

Based on the criteria of making the College Football Playoff, this would be the field as of right now.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0): Projected Big Ten champion
2. Indiana Hoosiers (12-0): Projected Big Ten runner-up
3. Georgia Bulldogs (11-1): Projected SEC champion
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1): Projected Big 12 champion
5. Oregon Ducks (11-1): Projected Big 12 at-large
6. Ole Miss Rebels (11-1): Projected SEC at-large
7. Texas A&M Aggies (11-1): Projected SEC at-large
8. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2): Projected SEC at-large
9. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2): Projected SEC runner-up
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2): Projected national independent at-large
11. Virginia Cavaliers (10-2): Projected ACC champion
12. Tulane Green Wave (10-2): Projected AAC/Group of Five champion

And for those of you who wanted a visual depiction of the bracket, ESPN has you covered over on X.

And look at who Texas A&M would host at Kyle Field in the first round? The Notre Dame Fighting Irish...

How far could Texas A&M Aggies go in CFP bracket as the No. 7 seed?

Where things stand now, Texas A&M would be on the Indiana side of the bracket. They would face some combination of Indiana, Georgia, Ole Miss, Notre Dame and the fourth highest-ranked conference champion. For this exercise, we will say chalk prevails and it will be the Virginia Cavaliers coming out of the ACC. As the No. 7 seed, Texas A&M would host No. 10 Notre Dame in a rematch.

While Texas A&M beat Notre Dame up in South Bend, that was by one point in the second week of the season. Notre Dame has not lost since. The Fighting Irish may be one of the hottest teams in college football, but they do seem to be propped up by the Selection Committee because of the golden domes of their helmets. Beating the same team twice in one year is hard, but Texas A&M can do this.

From there, Texas A&M would likely face No. 2 Indiana in the Orange Bowl. There is no way around it, that is a tough national quarterfinals matchup, especially after how close the rematch with Notre Dame might be in College Station. If Texas A&M were to upset the Hoosiers in Miami Gardens, they are going to need a prayer to get past either No. 3 Georgia or maybe even No. 6 Ole Miss in the semis.

Overall, Texas A&M may actually want to be on the other side of the bracket from Georgia, Indiana or Notre Dame. If they were the No. 5 seed, they could beat the No. 12 seed, which right now would be the projected AAC/Group of Five champion Tulane Green Wave. They could get the best of presumptive Group of Five champion Texas Tech. Alabama and Oklahoma are both beatable as well.

Ultimately, Texas A&M can win a home playoff game and maybe pull off a national quarterfinals upset if they get the right matchup. However, asking them to win three and now four playoff games in a row is a bit much. Their best shot might be to catch a team like Ohio State by surprise and garner some momentum as a plucky No. 5 or No. 8 seed. Sadly, a first-round bye is no longer possible for them...

Assuming Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship, Texas A&M likely faces Notre Dame first.