Rain or shine, and more likely rain than shine, Texas A&M will face Arkansas this Saturday in a battle of in-conference foes. While the Aggies have given us no reason to believe they'll suffer their first loss of the season, this is a Razorback group that is — for the most part — playing teams close despite being their 2-4 record. So, if a theoretical storm were to hit this game on Saturday and send the Aggies home with a loss, let's take a look at how that would come to happen.
A&M's biggest miscues on the road persist
Texas A&M has been playing dominant football this season, but there have been some cracks when this team leaves Kyle Field — specifically when it comes to third downs and penalties.
The Aggies own the nation's best third-down defense — holding opponents to a conversion rate of just 20.5 percent. However, that number jumps to 46.67 percent when on the road and is one of the 35 worst marks in the country. We all know this team has struggled with penalties under Mike Elko, averaging 8.3 per game, but that number balloons to a nation-worst 13 per game away from home (though it's worth noting that they've only played one road game this year).
Both are ugly stats on their own, but even worse when you consider this week's opponent. Arkansas has the nation's third-best third-down offense, converting on 55.3 percent of attempts, and commits just seven penalties per home game. If this game gets sloppy and the Aggies' inability to limit penalties or get stops on third downs continue, things could get tense for Aggie Nation.
Taylen Green puts on his Superman cape and takes the game over
One man can't beat an entire football team, but as we've seen from this Arkansas team at several points over the last month, you can come pretty close. Taylen Green isn't the only dynamic player on the Razorback offense, but he's certainly the one who will strike the most fear in the Aggie defenders. He enters this game with 2,158 yards of total offense, 17 total touchdowns and two games with both 200-plus passing yards and 100-plus rushing yards.
Texas A&M has faced talented quarterbacks this season, but none that are playing football as well as Green is coming into this game. If he can bust out another performance where he's eclipsing 100 yards on the ground and consistently hitting his targets through the air, this defensive group could be in a pretzel for 60 straight minutes — putting a ton of pressure on the offense to find responses.
The rain pours down on this Aggie passing attack
I'm not one to worry too much about weather, but this weekend's forecast could spell some real trouble for the Aggie offense. This team has relied on the explosive passing game — not just to put points on the board but to open up running lanes for its tailbacks — and if there is persistent rain through this contest then it's far from a guarantee that this group will find the same success it has up to this point.
Arkansas' defense is just as poor at stopping the run as it is defending the pass, but if the Aggies passing game shows the same inconsistencies its had — primarily with accuracy and turnovers — the combination of those issues and a rainy day could spell real trouble.
The Razorbacks will have to deal with the same conditions, of course, but Texas A&M hasn't faced bad weather yet this season. If things get sloppy in Fayetteville, that could make a huge difference in the outcome of this game.