Vegas oddmakers are clearly high on Marcel Reed's shot at the Heisman following his big game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish up in South Bend this past weekend.
Reed was not really on the radar for the award in the preseason or the first two weeks— the Heisman story there was how short the odds were for Arch Manning, who had yet to start against a good team, and then his subsequent falloff after that point. Now, though, as things begin to round into form for the season, Marcel has planted his name firmly in the discussion.
I know, there's a lot to say about whether the Aggie signal caller did all that well, given his low completion percentage, but I think there's a reason that a lot of people are all of a sudden giving him this attention. Reed is now sixth in Heisman odds per Vegas oddmakers, and I think he has a chance to keep climbing.
Marcel Reed shoots up to sixth in Heisman odds following massive game against Notre Dame
But just how impressive has Reed been compared to some of the players also vying for this award? Let's take a look at the numbers to see if this hype is justified.
According to collegefootballdata.com, Reed put up 0.511 EPA/play (Expected Points Added, or EPA, is an all-in-one metric that accounts for yardage gained, down, distance, and game situation) against the Fighting Irish. For contrast, Oklahoma QB John Mateer put up 0.349 EPA/play against Michigan— a game at home against a worse defense.
Georgia's Gunner Stockton averaged 0.483 EPA/play against Tennessee. Miami QB Carson Beck, the odds-on favorite per Vegas, put up 0.441 EPA/play against this same Notre Dame defense. Oregon QB Dante Moore put up 0.421 EPA/play against Northwestern (the best defense the Ducks have yet faced in what has been a very soft schedule so far). For further context, the aforementioned Arch Manning put up -0.133 EPA/play against Ohio State.
That's just one metric, but it's a pretty solid one to measure an individual player's contribution— and it favors Marcel against the quarterbacks ahead of him when you compare their biggest games against each other.
It's also worth noting that the numbers I'm referencing here are unweighted, meaning they haven't even been adjusted for strength of opponent. When you do that, the Aggie quarterback's performance against Notre Dame should move even higher in estimation.
Again, this is a single data point, and there's a lot more that Marcel needs to put together before this comes to fruition. But even so, we can now say something that we haven't been able to in quite some time: there is some legitimate in-season Heisman hype for the Texas A&M