We covered where Mike Elko and Texas A&M can press the statistical advantage against the Tide earlier today; now, we'll take a look at the opposite. Where does Kalen DeBoer's team have an opportunity to exploit a Texas A&M team that has more than their fair share of vulnerabilities?
As you'd expect, there are more of these spots than A&M fans are comfortable with— but let's take a look at the two toughest matchups for the Aggies in this game against the Tide.
Pitfalls Texas A&M needs to avoid if they want to pull the upset in Tuscaloosa
Explosive pass defense
This is one of the most obvious pieces of the puzzle for the Aggies. Keelon Russell and this receiving corps have been excellent at creating big plays through the air so far this year, and the Aggies have been absolutely horrendous at stopping them.
A&M currently ranks 130th in the country in rate of passes of 20-plus yards allowed. Alabama ranks 17th in generating those plays. If Russell and company start connecting early on, it will be curtains very quickly for the Aggies.
However, a lot of that comes from early on in the season for the Maroon and White. A&M has done a better job at limiting the explosive passes as of late; Arkansas and Missouri both only had a couple against A&M, and the latter squad had been pretty good at generating them.
Alabama, though, is even better. The Aggies will have their work cut out for them to slow the Tide down— if they can do that in this key area, they'll be in business.
Success in the red zone
The Aggies, for all the good things they've done on defense, have had a bad habit of breaking down when opposing offenses reach the red zone. This is pretty much the exact opposite of a bend, don't break defense, in other words— when teams are able to get a drive down inside the 20, the Aggies far too often allow them to score.
The truth is masked by the Aggies' low score percentage allowed overall when in the red zone— they actually look pretty good if you're measuring just by this metric. A&M is currently 15th in the nation here, allowing teams to score on just 71.43% of red zone opportunities.
However, you have to look a little bit deeper than that to see the cracks in the Aggies' armor. When you filter for touchdown percentage, the Aggies drop like a rock, all the way down to 60th in the country. That's in the top half of teams in the nation, yes, but it's far from the elite mark that you'd expect out of a top-shelf defense.
Red zone success rate is another discouraging marker for the Aggies. While A&M excels at defensive success rate overall, ranking 31st in the country, they are 93rd when it comes to allowing successful plays in the red zone— once teams get down there, they tend to be able to move the ball more effectively against the Aggies than they would be against other opponents.
Alabama, on the other hand, is 48th in the country in red zone sucess rate on offense. It's lower than their overall success rate (they're 29th in the country there), but point being, they are pretty effective inside the 20. The Aggies will have to get some stops in that area if they want to have a chance at this upset.
Add us as a preferred source on Google