Most Aggie fans trace the beginning of Marcel Reed's regression back to the Texas game at the end of last year, and there's good reason for that. A&M's offense, which up until that point had been averaging over 30 points a game (one 16-point performance against Auburn notwithstanding), was held to only 17 in regulation and looked positively anemic for most of the evening.
However, a deep dive reveals that the inconsistency started even before that fateful night in Austin. There's one glaring example: the first half against the South Carolina Gamecocks was one of the worst performances we've ever seen out of Reed, even counting this year's games, but he redeemed himself in the second half— in such a way that he earned AP Player of the Week honors for his effort.
The real cracks began to show, however, in the first half of the Missouri game last year. Reed came into that one with all the confidence in the world after tearing up the LSU Tigers heading into the bye, but when they took the field against Missouri, the Aggies were hit with a defensive strategy that ended up setting the tone for the falloff we've seen manifest this year.
Missouri's strategy against Marcel Reed will show what every other team will do this year
Missouri's strategy was pretty straightforward: they wanted to take away the big play from the Aggies, who had come into that game with a penchant for explosivity through the air. The way they did this was by relying on their defensive front to handle the Aggie run game and committing more numbers to defending the pass in some soft zone coverage.
This is exactly what Texas and Miami ended up doing, and it's exactly what teams have done against Marcel this year to flummox him. As his confidence has decreased, he's been less and less able to deal well with it— we've seen way too many instances where he's been unable to make the easy, simple plays and passes.
That really is the way to deal with this kind of defensive strategy: be patient, take the easy play, and pick apart these zones with the short gains. The bet that teams have been making against Marcel is that he won't be able to consistently do that, and they've been relatively successful in that so far.
The other thing that helps neutralize this strategy is a strong running game. The reason Texas and Miami were more successful in this strategy against the Aggies than were the Tigers was simple: their defensive fronts were able to stop the A&M run game more effectively than Missouri without having to commit extra defenders to that task.
When the Aggies leaned more on the run in the second half against Missouri (they only passed the ball seven times after the break), they feasted, running up 24 points in the final 30 minutes. That's also what just gave them so much success against Arkansas this last week: they ran the ball 49 times compared to only 19 pass attempts.
The dilemma that now faces Missouri is a clear one: do they take the same tack that has been so effective against Marcel in the past, committing more to taking away the big pass than to taking away the run— and therefore becoming more susceptible to an A&M rushing attack that looks like their strength this season— or do they aim to take away the run, banking on Marcel's struggles meaning he won't be able to take advantage of man coverage downfield?
It will be intriguing to see the chess match between DC Corey Batoon and Holmon Wiggins on that front— and this is why unlocking the strength of the run game last week was so key for the Aggies. If Batoon decides to commit numbers to taking away the Aggie run game, he runs the risk of Marcel finally connecting on some of those downfield explosives that have been so elusive for the Aggies thus far this year.
That would obviously be massive for A&M's season, as that's just the kind of thing that Reed needs to get his confidence back fully. Of course, it could crash and burn, too, with Marcel or the receivers missing every single opportunity to go over the head of the Missouri defense— but we're glass-half-full here!
This game is pivotal for the outcome of both teams' seasons as far as win-loss records, but it could bear even more significance for the Aggies if things play out this way. One way or another, we'll see how the rest of A&M's schedule will attack this offense based on what Missouri does in this game.
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