There has been a lot of talk about the steps that Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed needs to take for the upcoming season if the Aggies are to have the year that they want on the offensive side of the ball. There's been plenty of optimism about his ability to take those steps from within, but there are a lot of doubtful voices from the outside as well.
Some of that is a lack of actual attention to the way things are going in College Station, of course. But even so, that has affected the way that certain fans view Marcel for the upcoming year— skepticism towards the prospect that he will improve upon what we saw when he had to take over for Conner Weigman in the Florida game.
Of course, the reality is that a step has already been taken there. Even though the Aggies lost their last four games against Power Four competition, it wasn't because of an anemic passing offense— in fact, just the opposite.
A close look at Marcel Reed's passing success shows just how prodigious his improvement could be in 2025
Passing success rate is one of the statistics in college football most highly correlated with winning. If you can consistently pick up yards through your pass game, it is hard for defenses to knock you off-kilter, which leads to more dependable creation of scoring opportunities.
If you take a look at the way that Marcel's passing success rate evolved over the course of the season, a definite trend emerges. Before the LSU game, there was a lot of reason for concern with Reed— something which I pointed out on this site a couple of times— but after he became the full-time starter, things were far different. You can see in the table below (data collected from collegefootballdata.com):
Opponent | Passing Success Rate |
|---|---|
Florida | 35% |
BGSU | 38% |
Arkansas | 32% |
So. Car. | 52% |
NMSU | 50% |
Auburn | 45% |
Texas | 44% |
USC | 48% |
There is a massive disparity between the first slate of starts and the second. Down the stretch of the year, his average game saw about a 48% passing success rate, while earlier in the year, his average game saw a 35% success rate.
When you adjust for opponent quality, things look even more impressive:
Opponent | Adjusted Passing SR |
|---|---|
Florida | 41% |
BGSU | 41% |
Arkansas | 31% |
So. Car. | 59% |
NMSU | 47% |
Auburn | 50% |
Texas | 57% |
USC | 50% |
The stark disparity between the first and second halves of the season can't just be explained away by running a different system. In fact, there was less asked of Marcel in the first three starts than there was down the stretch, and he was facing several ferocious pass defenses in that latter part.
And yet, the pass game was far more functional down-to-down than it was in the first part of the year. What was lacking was what A&M was missing all year: passing explosiveness. There was an inability to stretch the field no matter what quarterback the Aggies were using.
With a far-improved receiving corps, things are looking up in that respect for A&M this year. But fans need to realize that Marcel's improvement has already begun— you just have to know where to look.