Texas A&M football vs. Missouri full breakdown: Defensive slog or breakthrough performance for one team?
The season is at an inflection point for Texas A&M football. After starting 0-1, the Ags are currently on the longest win streak they’ve had since the 2020 season at 4 in a row, including two games away from home against SEC opponents.
Now, they open up conference play at Kyle against a top-10 opponent in the Missouri Tigers. Mizzou, last year’s Cotton Bowl winners over the Ohio State Buckeyes, has not exactly risen to the occasion so far this year, but they are nonetheless undefeated.
That’s not to say that the Tigers have looked awful by any stretch. Their defense, in particular, has been pretty solid, but their offense has certainly left a little bit to be desired (sound familiar, Aggie fans?)
Despite boasting two returning offensive stars in Luther Burden and Brady Cook, the Tigers have not exactly been a machine on that side of the ball. In fact, their best offensive weapon has been RB Nate Noel, who transferred in from Appalachian State.
The fact remains, though, that their success rate against Power 4 competition has been a mere 40%. That’s a pretty inefficient offense, all things considered. For context, the Aggies averaged a success rate of 40% against Notre Dame—and we all know how Texas A&M football fans felt about that offensive performance.
The key for Texas A&M football is to keep the Tigers inefficient on early downs. Vanderbilt was able to do this to Mizzou, and the Tigers’ third down conversion rate—which had been stellar up until that point—plummeted as a result of facing longer distances to go.
On the flipside, the Aggies have to stay ahead of the chains, especially if Marcel Reed ends up getting the start. When Reed is in the ball game, the Aggies are leaning on a rush-heavy attack, which is less explosive by nature. The Tigers have notched at least 5 TFLs in every game this season, but never more than 6; solid play up front may be able to neutralize the Tiger DL.
But if Reed is indeed the starter once more, it may be very difficult on the Aggies. We saw Arkansas overload the box to a disrespectful degree last week, but A&M was unable to take advantage downfield. Missouri will no doubt try the exact same strategy, but they have superior personnel with which to do so.
Weigman changes that calculus. Missouri will take the same tack no matter what, at least to start the game (i.e., they will make Weigman prove he can beat them consistently down the field given that he would be returning from injury), but he can hit those deep shots at a much higher rate than Reed can.
Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed is now 3 of 17 on passes beyond 20-plus yards from the line of scrimmage, per PFF. He went 0 of 5 on those throws vs. Arkansas. He also is 3 of 15 this season on passes when throwing outside the numbers beyond 10-plus yards from the line of scrimmage.
— Carter Karels (@CarterKarels) September 29, 2024
If the pass game opens up like that for A&M, then so does the run game. Missouri will have to adjust, and that will provide more space for Moss, Daniels, and Smith to get things going.
No matter who plays at QB, this team is built around winning the line of scrimmage, and the run game is a reflection of that. If you allow the Tigers to commit so many defenders to the box that all the misdirection, motion, etc., is for naught, then you’re up a creek without a paddle. This is why Weigman needs to be the choice if he is available.
The defense for Texas A&M football just needs to keep doing what they’ve been doing: improving every week, cutting down on explosives, and pressuring the passer. This will be the best DL by far that Mizzou has seen, and they haven’t done a great job of dealing with those that they’ve faced so far anyway.
Burden is a big time threat at the receiver position, but he has yet to break out fully this year. Hopefully, a guy like BJ Mayes will be the 5th DB out on the field for the majority of the time against this offense rather than Jaydon Hill, as his coverage skills will be desperately needed to keep Mizzou behind the chains.
So, prediction time. I’m feeling the same way I did on Monday: I think this is too tall a task for the Aggies if Reed is back there. Opponents have continued to adjust to his play style every week, resulting in worse and worse offensive performances from the Aggies, while he has been unable to adjust in turn. If it’s no. 10, I have this one as a 24-20 win for the Tigers.
However, if we see Weigman back there, I’m far more bullish on the Aggies’ ability to generate and capitalize on scoring opportunities. With no. 15, I see a decisive win for A&M, something like 31-17 or so.