Texas A&M football vs. Florida full breakdown: Why Aggies roll Gators in the Swamp

Breaking down Texas A&M football vs. Florida: Key matchups, areas to watch, and more

Texas A&M football is set to take on Florida in one of the biggest games in the SEC this weekend. After an early setback against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the Aggies are looking to establish themselves firmly in Mike Elko’s first year.

On the Florida side of things, Billy Napier’s squad is teetering on the edge of a cliff. This is a make it or break it year for the third-year man in Gainesville, and things are not exactly looking rosy so far.

UF suffered an early, ugly loss to a Miami team that, admittedly, has looked pretty good through two weeks. But now the Gators are undergoing some unrest at the quarterback position, with a fanbase that is eager to see the star freshman and a coaching staff wishing to stick with their original choice at signal caller.

In short, the Gators are not in a great place. As we’ve seen in the past, though (LSU 2016, anyone?), a team dealing with issues like this can pull together with the slightest bit of hope, or they can fracture at the first sign of difficulty.

Hence, a fast start is imperative for the Aggies. If you give the Gators any hope at all early on, things could snowball—especially in front of a rowdy crowd at the Swamp. You have to bottle them up quickly.

A potential issue here is that the Aggies have been rather susceptible to the big play so far this season, especially on the ground. Mike Elko didn’t mince words in his presser when speaking about the quality of the rush defense through the first two games.

The Gators boast a couple of solid backs, most notably veteran Montrell Johnson, who followed Napier from ULL. I think we see a lot of him early on, especially if Lagway ends up getting a significant share of the snaps, running zone reads and trying to take advantage of the edge of the Aggie DL, which has been undisciplined at times so far.

The pass game could be pretty tough on the Gators, however. Texas A&M football has allowed very little success through the air and almost no explosive plays so far. Some of that has to do with the fact that opponents have been loath to drop back much, given the ferocious Aggie front, and are therefore mostly throwing short passes.

Florida’s strategy last game was to set up max protections up front and let Lagway chuck it downfield. That will be a strategy that they cannot really use against the Aggies, both because of the higher quality of athlete on the back end of the A&M defense and the better pass rush they’ll be facing.

Whether the Aggies see Mertz or Lagway, neither will have a lot of time in the pocket. Applying pressure quickly could have the Gator signal caller seeing ghosts, especially if it’s the young five-star being forced to read an Elko defense repeatedly.

On the other side of things, I anticipate the Gators attempting to replicate Notre Dame’s gameplan against the Aggies; namely, man up on the outside, load up against the run, and make Weigman and the A&M receivers beat you.

Now, to be fair, the Ags actually had a decent amount of rushing success against the Irish when they attempted that strategy—and that’s with a poor performance by the Aggie backs, who followed their blockers much better in game two than they did in the opener. So there’s a solid chance that A&M is able to roll out a much-improved ground game relative to game one, even if UF takes this same tack. Of course, it should be said, the ND front is better than the UF front anyway.

In that vein, Aggie fans should be watching for rushing success early on. If Klein and this Aggie team can get something going on the ground against such a strategy from the Gators, then UF could be looking at a long afternoon down in Gainesville. I’ll specifically be watching for an increased number of runs for Conner, who really got into the swing of things against McNeese once he scrambled a couple of times.

If A&M is unable to move the ball on the ground, especially given the possible weather conditions during this game, it could be a rock fight. In a hostile environment against a desperate team, that’s the last thing you want.

I’m bullish on this A&M front, though, and pretty down on the UF defense. I think we see a heavy dose of Moss, Daniels, and Weigman on the ground early on, while the Gators spin their wheels trying to manufacture some explosives. I’m anticipating the coaching staff really drilling discipline on the edge of the line this week, but it’s possible the Gators still break an outside run or two.

As the game wears on, I think some things open up in the pass game. Weigman’s placement was superb on deep balls against McNeese, so I’d love to see a couple of those completed in this one. This one should be well out of reach late in the third quarter, but a late TD by the Gators may have it looking closer than it felt. I’m sticking with my 31-17 prediction. BTHOUF!