How Collin Klein’s biggest strength in 2023 could transform Texas A&M football into nation’s most efficient team
The struggles of last year’s Texas A&M football team were manifold and obvious to the fans. They were mostly concentrated on the offensive end, of course, though the defense also had their issues, without a doubt.
Even so, in certain respects, the Texas A&M offense didn't appear to be really that bad, per the advanced numbers. In fact, while fans watching the Aggies felt that the offense was downright bad at times, the reality is that the numbers say the offense was actually above average in several respects.
On an opponent-adjusted basis, the Aggies ranked 22nd in the nation in points per drive, 26th in success rate, 37th in passing efficiency (though they were all the way down at 69th in rushing efficiency), and 26th in third down efficiency.
All this to say, these are not numbers that suggest an offense as inept as that which many Aggie fans witnessed on Saturdays all of last year. There were bright moments, of course—Weigman's starts and Mississippi State in particular were great examples—but things sometimes felt like such a slog.
When combing through the numbers for this team from last year, though, I found something just as interesting as these unexpected rankings. This juxtaposition could help explain why the Aggies seemed to be simply spinning their wheels so often last year.
There's a statistic out there that deals with game control, dubbed by @statsowar on Twitter as "Eckel Rate." This is a percentage that measures how many of your offensive drives get at least a first down within the opponent's 40 yard line. If you have a high Eckel rate, that means your drives are sustained enough that they are regularly advancing into opponent territory, where you are generating a scoring opportunity—it's not quite the red zone, but drives that get inside the opponent's 40 yard line are ones that you generally expect to get points off of.
Interestingly, the Aggies were the 6th-best team in the nation in generating these kinds of scoring opportunities. Their drives, much more often than the average team, were getting into scoring territory. When you adjust for opponent quality, they were 5th in the nation.
However, if you decide to measure points per scoring opportunity, the Aggies look quite a bit less adept. Unadjusted, the Aggies rank 44th in points per opportunity, notching 4.15 points for every drive that crossed the opponent's 40; when factoring in opponent quality, that ranking drops to 53rd.
In other words, though the Aggies regularly were putting together "quality drives," they were not very good at actually creating points off of those drives. They were too often stymied when it looked like they could—or should—score. Defenses they faced often bent under the Aggie offensive attack, but they were much of the time able to keep from breaking.
That's the old regime, though. How do Collin Klein's numbers look in this regard?
How does no. 1 in the nation sound?
Under Klein, the Kansas State Wildcats were the top-ranked team in the nation in points per scoring opportunity, scoring 5.11 points for every drive that crossed the opponent's 40-yard line. When adjusted for opponent quality, they dip only to 2nd overall.
For what it's worth, the Aggie defense was able to muster a top-3 ranking in points allowed per scoring opportunity on an opponent-adjusted basis. So, if the Aggie defense can keep up their play in that regard, and Klein can bring over his wizardry to the A&M offense, this could be a deadly-efficient team.
For a squad that may lack something in explosiveness, given who they've lost to injury so far, efficiency of this kind could go a long way towards vaulting them into elite status. It's probably too much to expect to be top-5 in the nation on both offense and defense via this metric, but if the Aggies can improve at converting on their scoring opportunities, they could really be a force to be reckoned with.
Raw data via cfbstats.com and collegefootballdata.com. Opponent-adjustments and other intermediate calculations by the author.