Texas A&M fans across the country are eyeing this upcoming trip to Fayetteville with more than a normal measure of wariness. The Aggies will be hitting the road for only the second time this season as they visit the rival Razorbacks for the first time since 2013, as every game since 2014 (with the exception of the COVID year) has been played in the Dallas Cowboys' stadium in Arlington.
They will encounter a team that is desperate for a win against this program after going 1-12 against A&M over the past 13 years, as well as an interim coach who knows that a win here over a top-four Texas A&M team would go a long way towards getting him the permanent job. That's a nasty combination for this Aggie team that is also well aware of the looming trip to LSU in a couple of weeks— so the assemblage of eternal pessimists also known as the Aggie fanbase are predictably skittish about this prospect.
That said, there is little on-field reason that the Aggie faithful should be truly fearful of this Arkansas team, despite the unearned confidence of some Razorback fans. There are a few huge points to consider in this analysis— but first, let's hit on what the Hogs actually do well.
Why Texas A&M fans should by no means fear Arkansas ahead of trip to Fayetteville
The biggest thing that everyone has been talking about with the Hogs is their dynamic offense. Behind Taylen Green, a collection of running backs, and receiver O'Mega Blake, Petrino's offense has put up some eye-catching numbers so far this year.
The Hogs are second in the conference in yards per play, averaging nearly 7.5 in that metric. That's a pretty formidable number— until you really dig into it.
Just like last year, Bobby Petrino has done a great job of piling up empty numbers against lower-quality opponents throughout the first part of the year. The requisite deference should be paid to him for scheming up a good offensive game against a team like Ole Miss, but 7.26 yards per play against Alabama A&M or 10.86 yards per play against Arkansas State should be seen for what they are.
Of course, everyone has their cupcakes, but the Hogs have only faced one decent defense all year— Notre Dame— and they only put up 5.89 yards per play on them in Fayetteville. For context, the Aggies notched 7.07 per play against the Irish while on the road in South Bend.
Even the Tennessee Volunteers, a team ranked 10th in the SEC in yards per play allowed, held the Hogs below their average. Arkansas was stuck in neutral up in Knoxville until the end of the game, sitting at 17 points until two late touchdown drives that cut the final margin to only three points.
And that's the biggest strength of the Razorbacks: their weakness makes things look far more dire. The Hogs are last in the SEC in yards per play allowed and 124th in the nation by the same metric. Their rush defense, in particular, is positively porous: again, last in the SEC in yards per carry allowed and 115th in the nation.
This is a game that the Aggies, even without Le'Veon Moss, should be able to control up front by way of their dominant offensive line. Owens, Morrow, Daniels, and Smith should all see some time in this one, and I think we could see some big plays from all of those backs.
The biggest stat to watch here is third downs for Arkansas. They are one of the best teams in the nation at converting third downs, but they've fallen far short of their average in each of their last three games: against Memphis, Notre Dame, and Tennessee. Their worst mark on the year is 30% against the Tigers— and, of course, the Aggies are currently allowing a shade over 6% to conference opponents.
This will be a nice stress test for both squads. The Hogs have played the 10th-best and 13th-best defensive teams in the conference on a yards-per-play basis, and the Aggies have faced the 9th-best, 13th-best, and 15th-best offenses in the conference on the same basis. We'll see which of these marks is more for real in this game— and I'm more bullish on the Aggies in this respect.
Now, the one worrying thing is the weather for this upcoming game. There's a high chance of inclement weather affecting this game, which could turn this into a bit of a slog. In such circumstances, a play here or there— the randomness of football— could affect things in a much more drastic way than it would otherwise.
That said, this is an Aggie team that, just like the 2020 squad, is beginning to build up quite a bit of equity when it comes to how much faith the fans have in their ability to make the right play at the right time. We've seen them win in several different ways— a shootout win, a grind-it-out win, pulling away late after early frustration, and weathering an early offensive storm to eventually put a team in a vice— all that shows that this is a team that knows how to make the plays.
This is not to say that the Aggies will come out with their hair on fire and shut down the Arkansas offense from the snap— actually, quite the opposite. Petrino's script is the best part of his offense— so in all likelihood, the Aggies will have to sit through an uncomfortable first two or three defensive possessions before they really settle in.
Even so, I think Texas A&M controls the pace of this game well. Like when the Irish came to Fayetteville, I think Arkansas begins to press, and the Aggies stop them at some key points. The weather is looking to be more of a factor than I thought earlier in the week, so I'll amend my prediction to say that the Aggies win 31-13.