Texas A&M's game against Missouri this Saturday will be a true flashpoint for the season in a lot of ways. The Aggies are currently sitting at 8-0, coming in at third in the initial CFP rankings, but they still have two tough road contests remaining: one against Missouri, and one in the Lone Star Showdown on Black Friday.
Winning this game means that the Aggies have to be considered heavy favorites to enter that Black Friday matchup at 11-0, a position few envisioned for Mike Elko's crew coming into the year. It would also mean breaking a conference-wide 13-year drought, where no team has won three consecutive SEC road games with no intervening home or neutral-site matchups.
Standing in their way is a bruised and battered— but not quite yet broken— Missouri Tiger team. Mizzou opened the year on quite a tear, beating the daylights out of several overmatched opponents, but with two losses in their last three games— and the other being an overtime road victory over Auburn— the Tigers are tottering.
That unsteadiness is pronounced even more by the loss of their starter, Beau Pribula, after an injury against Vanderbilt. Eli Drinkwitz's squad will be led by highly-touted freshman Matt Zollers, who filled in nicely for Pribula in the loss to the Commodores, but facing this Mike Elko defense will be a whole new ballgame.
Texas A&M vs. Missouri preview and prediction: Texas A&M needs to show steady hand to win third straight road game
With two losses under their belts now, Mizzou is all but eliminated from playoff contention if they sustain another defeat. Honestly, thanks to their less-than-stellar non-conference schedule, they may already be on a razor's edge there— but this will be a team with their backs against the wall.
That's nothing new for the Aggies, however. They played a Notre Dame team that was backed up against it; as was Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida, and LSU.
The plain fact of the matter is that the Aggies are much more battle-tested than the Tigers are at this point. That's a point in the favor of the road team— and that's even before we jump into the specific matchups that this game brings about.
The most glaring thing is that the Ags have an experienced defense and extremely bright defensive mind matching up against a true freshman in his first-ever start, no matter how good he looked in game one. Drinkwitz's background is as an offensive coach, but he was schematically dominated by Elko's system last year (albeit with far different personnel), so that is of little comfort here for Missouri fans.
The Tigers' best hope is that Ahmad Hardy can keep them ahead of the chains consistently, but those prospects are not all that bright. After facing some pretty soft run defenses to open the year, the Tigers have dropped off a cliff in rushing success rate over the last two games, to 33% against Auburn and 41% against Vanderbilt— and that's with Pribula (a rushing threat in his own right) available.
Overall success rates have declined in recent games as well, going from 41% against Alabama, to 39% against Auburn, to 38% most recently against the Commodores. As we've seen against Elko defenses all this year, if you can't stay ahead of the chains, then you are going to be eaten alive on third down.
That has to be a major point of concern for the Tigers, too, as they rank 12th in the conference in sacks allowed per game, worse than LSU at 8th (who the Aggies just sacked 7 times on the road). That was thanks in large part to the unfavorable downs and distances that the Bayou Bengals were facing, and a similar fate could await Zollers and Mizzou on Saturday.
So how about the other side of the ball? Can the Aggies stand up to a strong Missouri defense? The answer is yes— if they stay disciplined.
The Tigers are not a team, athletically speaking, that can hang with the Aggies, but they are very disciplined on the defensive side of the ball. They like to force teams to drive the field, guard against explosives, and wait for opponents to make a mistake.
The problem is that, if the Aggies play offense like they did against LSU, they will seldom make mistakes. Marcel Reed looked more content than ever against the Tigers to sit back, take what the defense gave him, and work his way down the field. For a guy that was so often going for the kill shot early in the season, that was some notable growth.
The Missouri pass rush will be a force that the Aggies will need to reckon with, but Texas A&M is one of the best in the countries at protecting the quarterback. As soon as Missouri starts getting desperate, though, dedicating more players to getting home against Marcel Reed, A&M will be able to go over the top on them.
This is an Aggie team that has all the answers— it's just about finding the right ones at the right time. Reed has had time to grow into that as the year has gone on, and we're seeing him blossom before our eyes.
The key, above all else, will be making sure that the run game is not completely stymied. Missouri has played precious few adequate rushing offenses this season (only one in the top 30 in opponent-adjusted rushing success, where the Aggies rank fourth in the nation), and are coming off of their worst game yet in yards per carry allowed.
If there's one thing that Collin Klein can do, it's scheme up the run game, so even without Le'Veon Moss, I like this physical front line for A&M to make some noise in this game. This is a game that could easily get out of hand, much like we saw with LSU, if the Aggies don't get in their own way. I'll hedge a little bit and say that there's one or two drives with some penalty trouble— give me the Ags winning 38-13.