Texas A&M will be able to put all the talk to rest soon against the Texas Longhorns, as they head down to Austin tonight to face off with their bitter rival. This is a game that will be highly emotional for both sides, but it's one that— on paper— really favors the Aggies.
So if Texas A&M does indeed come out of Austin with a victory, what needs to happen? Let's take a look at three reasons why Texas A&M will defeat the Longhorns.
Why Texas A&M trounces Texas: Marcel Reed carves up Texas's defense
The Aggie signal caller has grown a lot over the course of the year and is now one of the top threats to take home the Heisman trophy. With him behind center, the Aggies have put together what SP+ ranks as the best offense in the Power 4— by far the best offense that the Longhorns have seen all year.
He has particularly grown as a passer, especially when it comes to consistently moving the ball (while also generating explosives at a high rate). Texas A&M has not had a game under 49% in opponent-adjusted passing success rate all year— and they've played some really solid units on the defensive end this year.
Texas is 9th in the conference in opponent-adjusted passing success rate allowed and 11th in defensive PPA per pass (per collegefootballdata.com). The Aggies have played several opponents ranked better than Texas in both metrics, and have far exceeded the averages allowed by those opponents— in other words, as bad as Texas has been at defending the pass, A&M is likely to make them look worse.