Texas A&M enters Week 6 as a two-touchdown favorite over the visiting Mississippi State Bulldogs, a team still licking its wounds from a 41-34 overtime loss last weekend. Despite the projected wide margin this game should not be taken lightly — this is a much-improved team under head coach Jeff Lebby that's stacked some pretty impressive results through the first month of the regular season.
So what would a Bulldog upset actually look like? Let's discuss.
Marcel Reed turns the ball over twice through the air
One of the qualifiers for a potential upset is the underdog finding an edge in the turnover battle, something the Bulldogs have been more than capable of doing through their first five games. Their defense is averaging 1.8 takeaways per game, the 26th-best mark in the sport, and is coming off a game in which they forced three Tennessee turnovers.
The Aggies have done a nice job at limiting turnovers, with an average of just 0.8 per game, but when you operate a down-field passing game you open yourself up to some riskier plays. This is also a good Mississippi State secondary they'll be facing, one that's holding opposing quarterbacks to a completion rate of 59.52 percent.
I'd say the magic number here sits at two: if Mississippi State can force Marcel Reed to cough the ball up twice through the air, then their pathway to a potential upset will only intensify.
Fluff Bothwell bowls through the Aggie defense
Mississippi State's offense has gotten a ton of production out of its running back room, with Fluff Bothwell and Davon Booth combining for 612 yards and 10 scores on the season. They lead an offense that's averaging 185.5 yards per game on the ground, the 33rd-highest metric in the sport. Bothwell has been specifically prolific at creating plays after contact, bowling his way to extra yards on most of his rush attempts.
Per @PFF_College, 259 of @HailStateFB running back Fluff Bothwell’s 405 rushing yards this season have come after contact.
— Brandon Langlois (@LangloisMSU) October 1, 2025
That’s the third-most in the SEC despite 35 and 33 fewer carries than the two players ahead of him. pic.twitter.com/i07ZSZO3R8
The A&M run defense has shown steady improvements each week, and did a really nice job last week holding Auburn's Jeremiah Cobb to just 28 rushing yards, but this is still a group whose tackling issues have popped up in spurts. If that rears its ugly head again this Saturday and Bothwell continues to pick up yards after contact, then the Aggies could be in for a long afternoon.
Blake Shapen keeps connecting on his explosive plays
This hasn't been the most methodical Bulldog passing game, but it's been very opportunistic and explosive — connecting on 10 plays of 40 or more yards and five that have gone for 50-plus yards. They've picked their spots and connected on them effectively, which has opened up more opportunities for things to operate closer to the line of scrimmage as a result.
The Aggie defense has done a nice job preventing deep passing plays, with just six going for 30 or more yards through four games, but they also have a couple of games against teams that don't stretch the field, like Auburn or UTSA — who rank 108th and 128th nationally in yards per attempt, respectively.
Shapen has shown he has the arm and the poise to get the job done, but he'll need to take it to another level this weekend as he plays his first conference road game of the season. If Kyle Field doesn't faze him and the deep shots are there a-plenty, the Bulldogs can certainly leave College Station with an upset victory.