This weekly article has not been kind to me. Having to list reasons why the Aggies will lose, while all they do is continue to win, sets me up for quite a lot of failure throughout the first half of the regular season. But here we are again, ready to find ways the Aggies could go and drop their first game of the year, and thankfully for me, this time it's at a place where losing is far too familiar for them. Will that help? Only time will tell, but for now let's get into the three biggest reasons why Texas A&M will lose to LSU this Saturday.
The Texas A&M defense fails to travel, again
Mike Elko's defense has seen a ton of growth since the beginning of the regular season — carrying top-50 production against both the run and pass — but one area it has yet to develop is carrying that success on the road. The Aggies are allowing 483.5 yards and 41 points per game on the road, both bottom-20 numbers in college football, and very different when you compare them to the 452.6 yards and 16.4 points per game that they're allowing at home.
Now granted, Texas A&M has played just two road tests this season and both against high-powered offenses, but until we see this group shut down an opposing offense on the road, its fair to assume that there will be at least some dip in production.
For as much disdain as the LSU offense receives, its production is probably better than people want to give it credit for. It's been very efficient through the air, holding the nation's 24th best mark in completion rate, and have done a nice job of keeping its quarterback upright.
LSU's sack rate allowed is just 3.35 percent on the season, a top-20 mark in the sport, and that number drops to 2.88 percent when playing at home. It may not have the flash or the potency that some of the best in the sport possess, but the Tigers do a nice job of playing safe football and allowing their defense to set the tone for this football team.
If the Tigers are playing within their structure on offense and the Aggie defense is failing to get to the quarterback or get off the field on third downs, this game could play right into LSU's favor and prevent the Aggies from dictating the style of play — something that has brought them a lot of success this season.
The stable of running backs aren't as equipped as we think they are
Texas A&M's ground game looked great last weekend — the first without star tailback Le'Veon Moss — as it ran for 217 yards and three scores in the Aggies' road victory at Arkansas. While impressive numbers no matter the opponent, this Arkansas group has let everyone run the football on them and is surrendering 188.71 yards per game with 17 rushing touchdowns allowed.
Things will probably look a little different this time around at Tiger Stadium; playing against a team that's allowing just 122 yards per game, 3.6 yards per rush, and seven rushing scores. While mobile quarterbacks have routinely found success on this group the same cannot be said for tailbacks, as this defense has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher all season.
This isn't to say the Aggie running backs are nothing without Moss or that last week's performance was just a mirage — just that this group might regress to the mean when faced with one of the better front sevens in the sport. If that's the case and Texas A&M is unable to run the football at a high clip, then the weight of the world will be put on Marcel Reed's shoulders, another thing worth bringing up when discusses ways in which Texas A&M could lose.
Marcel Reed plays his worst game of the 2025 season, throwing two interceptions
The Aggie starting quarterback was lethal against the LSU defense when they played last season, carrying the ball nine times for 62 yards and three scores. He also completed 100 percent of his passes in that game — a remarkable feat if you just ignore the fact that he only threw the football twice.
Reed will, obviously, be asked to do far more through the air this time around and will do so against one of the better defenses in the nation. LSU is holding opposing quarterbacks to a completion rate of just 58.6 percent, and is also forcing 1.14 interceptions per game. That plays right into Texas A&M's inefficiencies through the air, as Reed is only completing 61.9 percent of his passes this year and has thrown four interceptions over his last five games.
Should this Tiger defense play to the level it has all season and Reed continues to struggle with his passing efficiency, there is certainly a world in which he plays his worst game of the season in a tough road environment and puts his team in a very inopportune position.