Texas A&M needs a win for many reasons against Missouri, but they enter this game against the Tigers as underdogs early on. Though the line is not as massive as many might have presumed, there are still not a lot of people out there who are going to favor the Aggies in this matchup.
As it turns out, that's probably a well-founded instinct. Taking a look at the individual matchups for the Aggies, it's hard to find an edge: where A&M is good, Missouri is too; where the Aggies are weak, so are the Tigers.
However, there are also some areas that should worry the Aggies going into this: in other words, realms where Missouri is strong, but Texas A&M is weak. Here are the three biggest points of concern for A&M going into this game for the Tigers.
Three unfavorable matchups for Texas A&M against the Missouri Tigers
Consistency in the pass game for Texas A&M
Texas A&M is coming into this game with all sorts of questions about their offense, but after what we saw against Arkansas, most of those questions were answered when it comes to the run game. The Aggies definitely have a strength when it comes to picking up consistent yardage on the ground, but through the air, that's a different story.
Success rate is a metric that essentially measures how good a team is at staying ahead of the chains. The Aggies are in the bottom quarter of teams nationally when it comes to passing success rate, which should be no surprise to A&M fans: far too many of Texas A&M's pass plays are either incompletions or completions that fall woefully short of any sort of meaningful yardage gain.
The hardest part about that is that the Aggies are going up against a team that is just outside the top quarter of teams nationally when it comes to passing success rate surrendered— in other words, this is a Missouri team that has excelled at making their opponents inefficient through the air. While A&M should lean on their run game, they can't be entirely one-dimensional against a team like this— but the chances of doing what they need to in the pass game don't look great from this statistical point of view.
Explosivity in the pass game for Missouri
When it comes to moving the ball through the air for the Tigers, though, there's quite a different story. The Tigers are not only efficient in the pass game, they're one of the most explosive teams in the country.
Missouri is 15th nationally when it comes to explosive passes, or gains of more than 20 yards+ through the air. The Aggies rank 134th out of 138 teams nationally in this metric on the defensive side, meaning this is a real weak point where the Tigers are strong.
The Aggies will have to shore this up quickly, as LSU and Arizona State both absolutely took advantage of A&M in this area. Texas A&M's corners have a lot of work cut out for them to shut down the dynamic Missouri receivers— and if they can't, it's going to be a long day for the Aggie defense.
Pressure questions for Texas A&M
Up until this point, the Texas A&M pass rush has not lived up to their billing in the slightest. The Aggies have registered sacks on only 3.94% of opponent passing plays, good for 104th in the nation.
On the other side of the ball, the Tigers are 23rd in the nation in sack rate allowed, giving up sacks on only 3.25% of passing plays. That's a combo of two factors: first, excellent protection by the Missouri offensive line, which ought to be given its props, but second, Austin Simmons' penchant for getting the ball out very quickly.
This is why the ability of Missouri to generate huge gains through the air will not only be a product of the Aggies' ability to cover, but of their ability to generate pressure. If Austin Simmons is comfortable all day and can sit back in the pocket, then all he has to do is wait for one of these dynamic receivers to get open. If A&M can move him off his spot, like they were able to do to Matt Zollers last season, then they could avoid giving up the huge play— the only problem is that the statistics don't favor that happening.
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