Texas A&M is set to take on the LSU Tigers down in Death Valley in tonight's prime time game on ABC, and both teams are coming into this one with a lot on the line. With both squads carrying one loss already, there are more than a few people who view this contest as something of an early playoff elimination game— a scary thought for these programs which came into this season with high hopes.
LSU opened the week as a 7.5-point favorite via FanDuel, and the line currently sits at 8.5 in favor of the Tigers. While that's closer than some may have anticipated— the Aggies did just lose at home to Kentucky by 10 points, after all— it's a larger spread than many game projection systems have indicated it should be.
Bill Connelly's SP+ has LSU winning by only 4 points, for example, which is practically a toss-up on the Tigers' home field. Add in the fact that Trey'Dez Green is set to miss this game, and you can't help but feel a little bit hopeful for the outcome here if you're an Aggie fan.
Texas A&M may be an underdog against LSU, but they have the horses to win
That same prediction system only gives LSU a 61% chance to win this one pregame— which, again, is only a little bit better than a coin flip. If the Aggies are able to get off to a fast start against the Tigers, then an upset could really be brewing in this game.
That will be a tough ask, though, given the way this offense has been playing and the venue in which they'll be attempting to pull this off. Communication will be key, but Tiger Stadium is one of the loudest places in the nation to play as a visiting team.
Of course, that didn't dissuade the Aggies last year from completely taking over on the Bayou— but that was a team in a far different place than they are this year. Had A&M dominated last week, we could be seeing a far different vibe than we currently are, but as things stand, there's not a lot of national optimism about Texas A&M.
Even so, there are opportunities to take advantage of LSU on both sides of the ball. This secondary has been highly-praised over the early part of the year, but without DaShawn Spears, the Aggies will have plenty of opportunity to push the ball down the field. Reed was really in his own head last week, but this offense last season was nearly entirely built on hitting those big downfield plays from time to time, so if LSU gives them the look, they need to hit on it.
That will open things up for Marcel to use his legs against the Tigers, which is what has killed them each of the last few seasons. Then, on the defensive side, if the Aggies are able to stand up to the Tigers in the run game, they will be in a good spot.
Of course, A&M was gashed by Kentucky last week, and you'd think that that bodes poorly for what they'll look like against Kiffin's run game this week. However, I see Elko learning from last week's mistakes and having his guys ready to play in this one.
Texas A&M fans ought to be ready to be a little bit frustrated when Sam Leavitt picks up a third down or two using his legs, but especially without Green out there, I think the pass game may be a struggle for the Tigers. Dezz Ricks is still a shutdown corner, and Julio Humphrey has shown he can make a big play when the time is right, so it will be tough sledding for Leavitt and company.
I'm going to go with the outright upset here and pick the Aggies to win 27-24. Texas A&M is going to need to play their best game yet of the season, and I think that's exactly what we see down in Baton Rouge— and it will come at the expense of Kiffin's Tigers.
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