Texas A&M has a real shot at knocking off the Tennessee Volunteers this weekend in a definite trap game spot for Josh Heupel's team (despite the early start time for this annual blackout game). This is a squad that has earned every bit of their no. 7 ranking, though, so that's way easier said than done.
That said, the more you look at the statistical matchup between these two teams, the more a pathway to victory for the Aggies begins to become obvious. Let's look at three keys for Texas A&M on the defensive side of the ball to most effectively stymy the Tennessee offense.
Three keys for Texas A&M's defense against the Tennessee Volunteers
Limit Tennessee to three or fewer explosives
Texas A&M's biggest issue on defense has been pretty simple: they allow too many big plays to their opponents. Those have chiefly come in the pass game, as there are still too many busts on the back end of the defense, but they have been only average at preventing them on the ground as well.
The good news for the Aggies is that the Volunteers are just about as bad at creating big plays through the air as A&M is at preventing them. Texas A&M ranks 121st in defensive passing explosiveness (how big the big plays are) and 135th in defensive explosive pass rate (how often the big plays occur); Tennessee ranks 125th in offensive passing explosiveness and 103rd in explosive pass rate.
Things are better for both teams when it comes to the ground game, as you'd expect, so the key for A&M here is to make sure they lock in on the rushing attack. DeSean Bishop may be the best back the Aggies will see this year, so they'll need to tackle well and do it quickly, before he gets into the secondary.
Lock down inside the 40 yard line
Texas A&M's defense is one of the strongest in the country in what is sometimes referred to as "points per opportunity"— in other words, points allowed per drive that gets inside the 40-yard line. The Aggies allow, on average, only 2.83 points per opportunity to their opponents, good for 19th in the nation.
The Vols are pretty efficient on offense by this same metric, though. They score, on average, 4.39 points per opportunity, which ranks 27th in the nation— essentially, when they really get a drive going, they tend to get points out of it.
The Aggies will have to win when they are in this situation. Texas A&M far too often has been a little boom or bust in these scenarios: either they get a three-and-out or they let teams get into the end zone. If Tennessee has some momentum going and they start drawing within field goal range, the Aggies need to lock down and get a stop.
Win on first and second down
Maybe the biggest advantage that the Aggies have over the Volunteers is on third down: the Aggies are 12th in the nation in defensive third down conversion percentage, while the Volunteers are all the way down at 91st. Especially within the confines of Kyle Field, the Aggies should have a big advantage in that scenario.
The key for the Aggies to have the most success there, though, is to win on first and second down. If the Volunteers, with their dominant run game, are able to be in constant third-and-short situations, then they will be able to keep drives alive and tire out the A&M defense.
The Vols are 25th in the nation in standard downs success rate; in other words, they are one of the best in the country at staying ahead of the chains (as you'd expect, since their rushing attack is so good). A&M needs to knock them off course and hold them to 1 and 2-yard gains rather than 4 and 5-yard gains on first and second down— that way, they can feast on third and get the Vols off the field.
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