Texas A&M is getting set to take on the Missouri Tigers today on the road for the second-straight season. Despite the Aggies defeating Missouri by three touchdowns in Columbia last year, A&M comes into this game as the underdog, with the Tigers riding high after a top-10 win over Florida boosted them into the 14th spot in the rankings.
The Tigers opened the week as 3.5-point favorites over the Aggies, and that line has held steady throughout the week. This is a line that looked confusing upon first blush, given the direction of each program right now— most would think Missouri is going to win by a lot more than four points— but usually this means Vegas knows something we don't.
Looking at the stats, though, it's hard to find a solid edge for the Aggies in this one. Missouri has several strong points where Texas A&M has key weaknesses, but the same is not true in reverse— in other words, there are things that Mizzou should be able to exploit, given what A&M has shown so far in this season, but whether A&M can exploit any of Missouri's weaknesses is a real question.
Final odds and predictions: Texas A&M can cover and even win outright against Mizzou
The biggest factor here is the explosive passing game. Missouri comes into this game ranked 15th in the nation in explosive pass rate (how often they get big plays through the air) and 39th in the nation in pass explosivity (how big those pass plays are). The Aggies are 134th in the nation in defensive explosive pass rate, and 113th in the nation in defensive pass explosivitiy— teams regularly get big pass plays against A&M, and those plays tend to be pretty huge when they happen.
The other factor is that Austin Simmons is excellent at getting the ball out quickly and not succumbing to pressure from the defense; Missouri is 23rd in the nation in sack rate allowed, while the Aggies are 104th in defensive sack rate. Flipping that trend will be key for Texas A&M in this one.
That means that Marco Jones, Anto Saka, TJ Searcy, and the rest of the Aggie edge defenders will be playing a massive role in this game for the Aggies. Dezz Ricks and Julio Humphrey are good cover corners, but they can only be expected to defend for so long if the quarterback is able to just sit back in the pocket comfortably and pick apart the defense.
All that, and the Aggies are still only 3.5-point underdogs— somehow. Is this a situation where the sports books are baiting people into betting on this game, or is there a legitimate chance for the Aggies?
If (by which I mean when) Missouri sells out to stop the Aggie run game, Marcel Reed must make the right play. Their biggest weakness is their coverage in the secondary, so he needs to quickly locate the right matchup, whether Craver, Horton, or Bethel-Roman, and get the ball out to them. There are going to be chances for big plays today for the Aggies if Marcel can make them happen.
He hasn't yet so far this year, but we've seen it from him in the past. This is a chance for him to get back on track in a big way— and I think we see that happen. I can't shake the feeling that this is a game that the Aggies walk out of with a victory— I'm going to say 30-27 Texas A&M.
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